10 Comments
Mar 10, 2022Liked by Line Editor

Intellectually, I get (and agree with) all the reasons why NATO countries should avoid imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. But it's impossible not to be moved by the first-hand requests of the people on the ground who are suffering from this unprovoked invasion and believe that we should do more than we are doing... Sherman was right: War is cruelty, war is hell.

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It was frightening to read the comments below Matt Gurney's NP column on "Missiles-but-not-MIGs" the other day. Postmedia comments are a swamp, of course, about 90% anti-vaxxer in a 90% vaxed nation....but, still, reading actual nuclear jingoism, "what's he going to do, call you a bad name", shook me. They really seemed to believe we could just shoot down his most-prized warplanes and not risk even a tactical nuke, that Putin would just not Go There.

That's the problem with the NFZ request, really: even Russia would want one last warning level before nuclear attack. They have a couple of thousand "backpack nukes" that are <1 kilotonne yield, and only 50kg to carry around. Dropping one of those ON UKRAINE, would be their way of giving a warning shot. Only Ukraine would pay a nuclear price.

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One of the most humbling part of living in a 'first world country' is when reality punctures our belief that anything is possible and every problem has a solution. COVID certainly punctured that belief and watching a nuclear power like Russia essentially bully Ukraine does too.

But, it's better (and smarter) for us to begin to understand what we can -- and can't -- do. If the goal is to minimize the loss of life, then escalating the war with a NFZ seems very likely to do the opposite; to make Russia far more likely to escalate in kind leading to a wider, potentially nuclear, conflict. We are doing what we can, starving the Russian economy, providing support for Ukraine. Right now, at least, that seems to be the best we can do to push back against this injustice while not making it worse. I wish there were better options (and I'm open to hearing better options) but I don't see them.

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I know I'm naive on foreign policy(such a polite term) and my responses to Ukraine are more emotional than practical but is it possible that there is some sort of plan in the works? Something that can stop maternity and children's hospitals (hotbeds of nazi sympathizers) from being blown to rubble and smashed cribs? Something behind the scenes, being quietly discussed by all the learned and clever men who study other men like Putin and his, I heard entourage today as if he was a rock star? He is one man. Not a superman. Just a short puffy man, weirding out in odd ways like his 10m long conference/dining table with 2 chairs. Emotional! Such a fuss was made with Crimea that only one soldier died. So peaceful and let's have an election. Such BS. Millions of people are on the move, in fear for their and their children's lives, because of this one troublesome man. Can no one get rid of him?

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Whatever a no-fly zone might or might not accomplish militarily, the level of western resolve it would indicate would come as a bad surprise to Putin. It could even cow him. A major premise underlying his aggressive moves is the conviction that he has the stomach for fighting while NATO nations do not, a conviction events of the past few weeks have done nothing to alter. He believes he can bluff with impunity, even on the question of nuclear weapons use: no one is going to run the risk of calling him on it.

Bluff is all this threat is. Putin is ruthless and a bully, but not so demented as to initiate an exchange of missiles with the USA and NATO. If he were to issue such an order, saner people would refuse to obey it and quite possibly shoot him. No doubt there are some in Russia who would love to nuke Washington if they thought they could get away with it. But no amount of propaganda is going to reconcile them to seeing Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Kazan and Volgograd, etc., disappear, just to satisfy Putin's Ukrainian ambitions.

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Thank you for this; an excellent example of why I subscribe.

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Thank you for this excellent, on-the-spot reporting.

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Stay friends with farmers...

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