All environmental issues aside, it is consumer utility that will tilt gravity towards EV's. The tech sector is building an entire ecosystem of supporting technologies, business models and apps around EV's that will transform the way we live. Consider one of the last big inflection points - the advent of digital imaging. Not a big deal on its own, but it changed everything. Digital photography went mainstream because of the ease of use and all of the associated editing, photo sharing, uploading apps that went with it. Yes, many jobs were lost and investment in photographic and processing equipment was stranded. But consider what value and jobs have been enabled by digital imaging - the entire e-commerce universe, Amazon, FB etc, Youtube, Zoom, almost everything we do on a computer. Not all good, but no one is going back. We are on the cusp of a similar revolution in transportation that will spawn massive value-adding industries and businesses based on autonomous drive and connected, shared vehicle networks. And that could have many social benefits for people that cannot drive for any reason, could cut down accident rates, relive traffic congestion, etc. The size of the prize for the tech sector if it can wrestle a large part of the transportation sector away from oil companies is immense and they are throwing limitless resources at this challenge. And the more of an eco-system that gets developed around EV's, the less consumers will want to be on the outside of that. That potential has more charm for any politician than facts about relative carbon intensity or ethically produced oil. Sure, we will still need oil, but much less of it than was forecasted even a year ago.
It's instructive to compare to other technological switchovers. About 2005, I saw a graph of the declining price of a 1024x768 flatscreen LCD monitor with a 1024x768 basic Tube monitor. Both were getting cheaper, steadily, but the LCDs were getting cheaper much faster. You could see the two cost lines would intersect about 2008-9. I knew that there would be very nearly zero sales of CRTs in 2010, because CRTs had NOTHING to recommend them except lower cost: heavier, fatter, worse picture.
So it is with ICE (internal combusion engine) vehicles. They're more expensive to run, per km, more maintenance per year, louder, dirtier, smellier, and less-reliable.
It's unfortunate, how much initial-cost drives decisions, or we'd already be selling nothing but heat pumps instead of gas furnaces, and nothing but EVs.
The "national fleet", as it were, will probably be only at 10%-15% EVs when it becomes 100% EV sales, in the late 2020s. Then it will take another 20 years, because people won't (and shouldn't) toss out their ICE vehicles while they have many years left, and the car factories can only replace 5% of the national fleet every year. (Peter Tertzakian devoted a chapter to this issue in his 2006 book.)
Ask a politician what the plan is when we stop (or run out of oil). You will hear crickets, because no one really has any idea when that will be, or what we will do. We need to start thinking about a post oil world, or even a world where oil is winding down.
The trick with EVs is the increased demand for electricity. In some places like Norway, BC, and Quebec, those vehicles will be powered by clean hydroelectric power. In other places like California, the electricity comes from natural gas or coal power plants because the hydroelectric capacity is already being used and renewables aren’t sufficient to close the gap. This, combined with the energy input to make batteries and the lightweight materials needed for EV chassis mean that the decrease in demand for fossil fuels is likely to be tempered. Longer term, renewables like wind and solar will contribute more if the intermittency issue is resolved, and there’s potential for nuclear to fill the need for base load.
If oil demand plateaus and then declines, I wonder if it would make sense for Canada to coordinate with OPEC+.
Usually we think of cartels as bad - they keep prices high for the benefit of producers, at the expense of consumers. But in the case of oil, low prices are bad both for the Alberta economy and for climate change.
There will be the need for oil and gas for many years to come. Considering the climate to which we live in Canada and the cold weather we have for a considerable amount of the year, it will be some time before it will be feasible to transition off oil completely. The fact remains our i-phones to everything we see and touch including the inside of your electric vehicles is made with petroleum. Clothing to medication, roads to roofing, carpets, flooring, furniture, including your computers, are made with petroleum as well. So it will be with us for some time into the future unless another product is found to manufacture these very useful items. Destroying our own industry while importing billions of barrels of oil from dictatorship countries with out any environmental standards or human rights is absolutely ludicrous and self destructive. Lets take the time to consider all the different things that oil and gas contribute to before cutting our own throats. Yes, the Federal Government has failed Alberta and Albertan's miserably on its attack on the oil sands without any compensation to those who lost and continue to lose their livelihoods due to their unconstitutional actions and policies. It appears people who are against our oil and gas forget that we have a Constitution in Canada that should be followed and its purpose is to protect people from over reaching Government that are interested in power instead of people. This Federal Government of Canada and other Provinces have decimated our Constitution to which you should be noting and fail to even recognized. Perhaps some serious investigation into the Constitution and why we have it is in need and then a good story on what it contains and means to Canadians. I suggest every Canadian take the time to do this so you will recognize what is happening for what it truly is, a violation of every kind against Alberta and Albertans.
All environmental issues aside, it is consumer utility that will tilt gravity towards EV's. The tech sector is building an entire ecosystem of supporting technologies, business models and apps around EV's that will transform the way we live. Consider one of the last big inflection points - the advent of digital imaging. Not a big deal on its own, but it changed everything. Digital photography went mainstream because of the ease of use and all of the associated editing, photo sharing, uploading apps that went with it. Yes, many jobs were lost and investment in photographic and processing equipment was stranded. But consider what value and jobs have been enabled by digital imaging - the entire e-commerce universe, Amazon, FB etc, Youtube, Zoom, almost everything we do on a computer. Not all good, but no one is going back. We are on the cusp of a similar revolution in transportation that will spawn massive value-adding industries and businesses based on autonomous drive and connected, shared vehicle networks. And that could have many social benefits for people that cannot drive for any reason, could cut down accident rates, relive traffic congestion, etc. The size of the prize for the tech sector if it can wrestle a large part of the transportation sector away from oil companies is immense and they are throwing limitless resources at this challenge. And the more of an eco-system that gets developed around EV's, the less consumers will want to be on the outside of that. That potential has more charm for any politician than facts about relative carbon intensity or ethically produced oil. Sure, we will still need oil, but much less of it than was forecasted even a year ago.
It's instructive to compare to other technological switchovers. About 2005, I saw a graph of the declining price of a 1024x768 flatscreen LCD monitor with a 1024x768 basic Tube monitor. Both were getting cheaper, steadily, but the LCDs were getting cheaper much faster. You could see the two cost lines would intersect about 2008-9. I knew that there would be very nearly zero sales of CRTs in 2010, because CRTs had NOTHING to recommend them except lower cost: heavier, fatter, worse picture.
So it is with ICE (internal combusion engine) vehicles. They're more expensive to run, per km, more maintenance per year, louder, dirtier, smellier, and less-reliable.
It's unfortunate, how much initial-cost drives decisions, or we'd already be selling nothing but heat pumps instead of gas furnaces, and nothing but EVs.
The "national fleet", as it were, will probably be only at 10%-15% EVs when it becomes 100% EV sales, in the late 2020s. Then it will take another 20 years, because people won't (and shouldn't) toss out their ICE vehicles while they have many years left, and the car factories can only replace 5% of the national fleet every year. (Peter Tertzakian devoted a chapter to this issue in his 2006 book.)
Yes, a thousand times yes!
Ask a politician what the plan is when we stop (or run out of oil). You will hear crickets, because no one really has any idea when that will be, or what we will do. We need to start thinking about a post oil world, or even a world where oil is winding down.
The trick with EVs is the increased demand for electricity. In some places like Norway, BC, and Quebec, those vehicles will be powered by clean hydroelectric power. In other places like California, the electricity comes from natural gas or coal power plants because the hydroelectric capacity is already being used and renewables aren’t sufficient to close the gap. This, combined with the energy input to make batteries and the lightweight materials needed for EV chassis mean that the decrease in demand for fossil fuels is likely to be tempered. Longer term, renewables like wind and solar will contribute more if the intermittency issue is resolved, and there’s potential for nuclear to fill the need for base load.
If oil demand plateaus and then declines, I wonder if it would make sense for Canada to coordinate with OPEC+.
Usually we think of cartels as bad - they keep prices high for the benefit of producers, at the expense of consumers. But in the case of oil, low prices are bad both for the Alberta economy and for climate change.
There will be the need for oil and gas for many years to come. Considering the climate to which we live in Canada and the cold weather we have for a considerable amount of the year, it will be some time before it will be feasible to transition off oil completely. The fact remains our i-phones to everything we see and touch including the inside of your electric vehicles is made with petroleum. Clothing to medication, roads to roofing, carpets, flooring, furniture, including your computers, are made with petroleum as well. So it will be with us for some time into the future unless another product is found to manufacture these very useful items. Destroying our own industry while importing billions of barrels of oil from dictatorship countries with out any environmental standards or human rights is absolutely ludicrous and self destructive. Lets take the time to consider all the different things that oil and gas contribute to before cutting our own throats. Yes, the Federal Government has failed Alberta and Albertan's miserably on its attack on the oil sands without any compensation to those who lost and continue to lose their livelihoods due to their unconstitutional actions and policies. It appears people who are against our oil and gas forget that we have a Constitution in Canada that should be followed and its purpose is to protect people from over reaching Government that are interested in power instead of people. This Federal Government of Canada and other Provinces have decimated our Constitution to which you should be noting and fail to even recognized. Perhaps some serious investigation into the Constitution and why we have it is in need and then a good story on what it contains and means to Canadians. I suggest every Canadian take the time to do this so you will recognize what is happening for what it truly is, a violation of every kind against Alberta and Albertans.