Did the Liberals tip over? Or do they just need a barbecue? Can Alberta pull a Quebec? And, um, is this going to be the last good summer before the hard times?
I think we're in for a bumpy ride for the next few years, but I don't think it'll be the end of all good things that Jen is predicting. I'd guess what we'll see is a reconfiguration of the economy, with some people actually winning, not a lot of change for most, but some serious hurt for the losers.
Part of what's happening is an unwinding of all sorts of silliness from the pandemic. Financial markets went *crazy* during the pandemic, and so did the housing market. That built on what was already a long boom that was starting to peter out, but had been sustained by sugar-high spending by Trump and Trudeau. All that froth is going to shake out now, and like any bubble, the people who got in late and stayed in too long are going to get hurt. Same thing with housing prices - if we have a really bad turn in the housing market like Calgary in the early '80s, we're talking about a decrease in prices of ~30%. Take a look at a chart, and you realize that takes us back to where we were in 2015-2016. The nastier effect is going to be that higher interest rates are going to drastically slow the housing market, and housing construction has been a big element of the economies in cities for the past couple of decades. Worse, it's going to disproportionately hit blue collar men, so it's going to hit the people most prone to populism the hardest. If you own a house, the cost of owning it is going to get higher, but we may see the value of those CMHC stress tests. Higher debt service costs are also going to suck the wind out of discretionary spending on goods and services, but that's exactly the effect that's going to nip off inflation.
On the other hand, Russia's war in Ukraine has screwed up the commodities and energy markets, and that's going to drive demand for Canadian exports. There's also going to be changes in a lot of supply chains as companies are starting to see China as unreliable and not worth the problems. Some of that is going to mean reshoring to Canada.
The bigger problem we have is a lack of government capacity to do things. Not only can they not walk and chew gum at the same time, they forget that they have gum in their mouth and start choking on it as they walk. The private sector responded rapidly and efficiently to the pandemic. Despite hiccups in supply chains, they kept things running. Where there were problems, it was typically a consequence of trying to adapt to bone-headed government dictates. They've even adapted to working from home and web conferencing, often using it as a way to becoming more efficient by reducing costs related to office and travel. On the other hand, the government just *stopped working* during the pandemic, and hasn't figured out how to start moving again.
Closing the playgrounds while telling people to go outside to get fresh air might have been the dumbest idea ever. But they didn't know what we were all dealing with, and they panicked.
Man do you guys have human nature figured out on how people view their narratives.
Trudeau is the albatross on the Liberal Party that abortion rights are for the Conservatives. Somethings got to give, and when it does, a landslide victory awaits. The election is there for the Conservatives if they want it....just like the last 2.
I wish I didn't share your pessimism about the future. But I do.
I just wanted to say that the first few minutes of your podcast made me want to thank both of you. You talked about the effect of the pandemic on each of you. I was somewhere in between Matt’s stoicism and Jen’s frantic creationism. Matt’s National Post video commentaries helped keep me steady in weaker moments and reading (or listening to-can’t remember which-covid brain) Jen’s commentaries on her baking and other activities made me feel better about my own intense gardening. Thank you both.
Greetings, I'm a relatively new subscriber and somewhat randomly chose this episode as the first podcast I've sampled. Just a quick note for both of you - it seems while you're making a point sometimes you're banging a table or making some other kind of thumping sound. And that's not something I can listen to! All the best.
I might have agreed with you about Daniel Smith - that the Sovereignty Act lacks credibility because it's playing at the very edges of legality - but after reading this article from Common Sense with Bari Weiss, I'm not so sure it's a bad idea. Especially give what you said about Quebec being all-but-sovereign (although, having lived in Montreal until recently, they've got big problems even with all the goodies). https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/abigail-shrier-in-defense-of-political
I would say the Liberals are toast in the next election, but for the fact ,that the PCs have become like the Toronto Maple Leafs - seemingly always capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I did miss you last week. The big thing about a podcast is that it is mobile in a way that YouTube isn't, so not only do I appreciate it my dog does as well.
I just finished reading Max Hasting's (Catastrophe 1914) and Margret MacMillan's (The War that Ended Peace) books on the the start of WW1, and I am getting that summer of 1914 or 1913 vibe. So yea agree enjoy you summer....
I'm thinking of building a reading list to send to the PM, Leaders of the Opposition and Defence Minister.
When will someone think about how much better and comfortable to split into Eastern Canada , Western Canada and whatever Quebec decides to do with their soverneity.
It would be a lot of work and a lot of scrabbling and concentrating but I believe and many people in the west believe that it would work and get us away from so much paperwork, regulations and the larger part of the elite.
As for sovereignty, I heard it said that Quebeckers see themselves as sovereign individuals. Like, if you ask, are you sovereign, the answer is yes I am. But the way you explained this in the podcast was great; helped me to understand further the extent of separatism. Like you made it make sense.
Apparently the convoy is coming back? Absent Canada Day celebrations on parliament hill and run of the mill nationalism, the convoy will return to fill the void. Will the line be having any Canada Day coverage where we can pretend we are one big happy family - why can't we be?
Looking forward to seeing all the episodes come out via one feed when it gets out of beta… but I keep downloading the one-episode feeds so you are clearly good listening.
Please never change the name of this podcast.
Listening to you guys makes me think that maybe, just maybe, not everyone has lost their shit.
I think we're in for a bumpy ride for the next few years, but I don't think it'll be the end of all good things that Jen is predicting. I'd guess what we'll see is a reconfiguration of the economy, with some people actually winning, not a lot of change for most, but some serious hurt for the losers.
Part of what's happening is an unwinding of all sorts of silliness from the pandemic. Financial markets went *crazy* during the pandemic, and so did the housing market. That built on what was already a long boom that was starting to peter out, but had been sustained by sugar-high spending by Trump and Trudeau. All that froth is going to shake out now, and like any bubble, the people who got in late and stayed in too long are going to get hurt. Same thing with housing prices - if we have a really bad turn in the housing market like Calgary in the early '80s, we're talking about a decrease in prices of ~30%. Take a look at a chart, and you realize that takes us back to where we were in 2015-2016. The nastier effect is going to be that higher interest rates are going to drastically slow the housing market, and housing construction has been a big element of the economies in cities for the past couple of decades. Worse, it's going to disproportionately hit blue collar men, so it's going to hit the people most prone to populism the hardest. If you own a house, the cost of owning it is going to get higher, but we may see the value of those CMHC stress tests. Higher debt service costs are also going to suck the wind out of discretionary spending on goods and services, but that's exactly the effect that's going to nip off inflation.
On the other hand, Russia's war in Ukraine has screwed up the commodities and energy markets, and that's going to drive demand for Canadian exports. There's also going to be changes in a lot of supply chains as companies are starting to see China as unreliable and not worth the problems. Some of that is going to mean reshoring to Canada.
The bigger problem we have is a lack of government capacity to do things. Not only can they not walk and chew gum at the same time, they forget that they have gum in their mouth and start choking on it as they walk. The private sector responded rapidly and efficiently to the pandemic. Despite hiccups in supply chains, they kept things running. Where there were problems, it was typically a consequence of trying to adapt to bone-headed government dictates. They've even adapted to working from home and web conferencing, often using it as a way to becoming more efficient by reducing costs related to office and travel. On the other hand, the government just *stopped working* during the pandemic, and hasn't figured out how to start moving again.
Closing the playgrounds while telling people to go outside to get fresh air might have been the dumbest idea ever. But they didn't know what we were all dealing with, and they panicked.
Man do you guys have human nature figured out on how people view their narratives.
Trudeau is the albatross on the Liberal Party that abortion rights are for the Conservatives. Somethings got to give, and when it does, a landslide victory awaits. The election is there for the Conservatives if they want it....just like the last 2.
I wish I didn't share your pessimism about the future. But I do.
Fabulous podcast again. Well done.
I just wanted to say that the first few minutes of your podcast made me want to thank both of you. You talked about the effect of the pandemic on each of you. I was somewhere in between Matt’s stoicism and Jen’s frantic creationism. Matt’s National Post video commentaries helped keep me steady in weaker moments and reading (or listening to-can’t remember which-covid brain) Jen’s commentaries on her baking and other activities made me feel better about my own intense gardening. Thank you both.
Greetings, I'm a relatively new subscriber and somewhat randomly chose this episode as the first podcast I've sampled. Just a quick note for both of you - it seems while you're making a point sometimes you're banging a table or making some other kind of thumping sound. And that's not something I can listen to! All the best.
I might have agreed with you about Daniel Smith - that the Sovereignty Act lacks credibility because it's playing at the very edges of legality - but after reading this article from Common Sense with Bari Weiss, I'm not so sure it's a bad idea. Especially give what you said about Quebec being all-but-sovereign (although, having lived in Montreal until recently, they've got big problems even with all the goodies). https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/abigail-shrier-in-defense-of-political
I would say the Liberals are toast in the next election, but for the fact ,that the PCs have become like the Toronto Maple Leafs - seemingly always capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Thanks, guys. Really appreciate your insights.
I did miss you last week. The big thing about a podcast is that it is mobile in a way that YouTube isn't, so not only do I appreciate it my dog does as well.
I just finished reading Max Hasting's (Catastrophe 1914) and Margret MacMillan's (The War that Ended Peace) books on the the start of WW1, and I am getting that summer of 1914 or 1913 vibe. So yea agree enjoy you summer....
I'm thinking of building a reading list to send to the PM, Leaders of the Opposition and Defence Minister.
When will someone think about how much better and comfortable to split into Eastern Canada , Western Canada and whatever Quebec decides to do with their soverneity.
It would be a lot of work and a lot of scrabbling and concentrating but I believe and many people in the west believe that it would work and get us away from so much paperwork, regulations and the larger part of the elite.
Let them eat cheerios!
With Wisconsin milk. It's cheaper.
As for sovereignty, I heard it said that Quebeckers see themselves as sovereign individuals. Like, if you ask, are you sovereign, the answer is yes I am. But the way you explained this in the podcast was great; helped me to understand further the extent of separatism. Like you made it make sense.
Apparently the convoy is coming back? Absent Canada Day celebrations on parliament hill and run of the mill nationalism, the convoy will return to fill the void. Will the line be having any Canada Day coverage where we can pretend we are one big happy family - why can't we be?
I’m still angry!
Looking forward to seeing all the episodes come out via one feed when it gets out of beta… but I keep downloading the one-episode feeds so you are clearly good listening.