Dispatch Lite: Jagmeet Singh's stretch goal
The NDP won’t be an opposition, but they’ll play one on TikTok.
Well, okay, more happened this week than we’d wanted.
The Line is a small operation. We all have kids and our kids were all off this week. We had content on hand already and the plan was to edit it in advance, set to auto-publish, and take the week off! We were very pleased that that included another dispatch from a Canadian reporter on the ground in Ukraine, covering the war there. We hope to continue to bring you such dispatches, and to expand our reporting offerings. But this costs serious bucks, people. You wanna know why most outlets have moved to opinion? News costs a lot more money.
We believe the news matters, more than ever. We suspect a lot of you agree. The Line is 100-per-cent dependent on subscribers to continue. If you are reading this, you aren’t one of those — our “lite” dispatches go to our freebie list only.
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We mentioned above that our plan was to just run some of what we already had on hand over the last week, but we knew there was a chance reality would intrude on our family time. We had guessed that if events were going to intrude the events in question would have involved the Ukraine-Russian war, which passed its four-week mark on Wednesday. Events there remain of enormous concern; the Ukrainians actually seem to be going on the counterattack, with some success. It’s hard not to root for these guys — the courage and martial skill of the Ukrainian people is astonishing. We remain convinced, though, and deeply worried, that the worse things go for Russia, the nastier President Vladimir Putin will get — especially if he concludes that his own personal political or literal survival is threatened. And honestly, at this point, how could it not be?
So we watched and waited for news, perhaps terrible news, on that front. A nerve gas attack? A major cyberattack? Even the use of nuclear weapons?
And then the big news of the week in Canada ended up being … a deal between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh. Huh. Well, okay, then!
Despite the demands of children at liberty, your Line editors have done their best to scrutinize the “confidence and supply” deal between Trudeau and Singh, and their respective parties. And we’re a little bit underwhelmed. It’s not a nothingburger, exactly. The deal matters. It will have a material impact on our federal politics. One of our friends quipped to us that it’s less than a burger, but more than a nothingburger — it’s a Canadian political Impossible Burger. And that sounds about right to us.
The key question here that we can’t really think up an answer for is what this deal changes. In big picture terms, the NDP is going to keep the Liberals alive for a while, and the Liberals will serve up some goodies the NDP base will like. That’s what the parties have agreed to, distilled to the most basic essence.
And this is new how? This has changed what?
The NDP doesn’t want an election right now. The Liberals don’t want an election right now. The Liberals are led by a guy who has already moved the party toward the left and seemed quite happy to do it. The Liberals were getting along just fine with NDP support until they rolled the electoral dice and tried to secure a majority in summer of 2021; they fell short, and now they’ll continue getting along just fine with NDP support.
Well, gee. Stop the presses.
Yes, yes, there’s more specific commitments. The parties have put on paper what they’ll work jointly to achieve. But look at those commitments. Anything surprising? Is this not precisely what any random collection of reasonably bright high schoolers in a mandatory civics class could have guessed when their teacher told them to write a five-paragraph essay on things the NDP and Liberals agree on?
We aren’t particularly swayed by arguments, largely from angry Conservatives, that this deal suddenly leaves the Liberals immune from accountability. Again, the NDP was already playing ball to avoid an election. A week ago, the Liberals were going to be held precisely as accountable as Singh found convenient, and that’s just as true now as it was then. It’s not that the angry Conservatives are wrong about the Liberals being immune from accountability. It’s just that they essentially already were, NDP protestations aside. The NDP will tighten the screws enough to make Trudeau uncomfortable but not enough to trigger an election. They won’t be an opposition, but they’ll play one on TikTok. This sucks, but it is what it is, folks.
Nor do we expect the deal to last the full four years. Hey, it could happen. Both parties could find reasons to keep it going. But remember: this is a gentlemen’s agreement between gentlemen that don’t like each other. Gentlemen who are both pursuing different personal and political agendas. This deal will last right up until the moment one of them sees more advantage in stabbing the other guy than in continuing to play nice-nice.
We admit we really aren’t sure what the Liberals are thinking here. Trudeau had a largely free hand already. This is, to us, baffling.
And as for the NDP, well, gosh, all we can say is good luck, fellers. An old grizzled political observer your Line editors once knew liked to joke that being the junior partner in these kinds of arrangements is like being the mistress of a rich, married man. If you don’t know that you will be dumped while your former lover runs back to his family — the base voters, the caucus, the donors — well, sorry, sweetheart, but that’s on you. We saw a version of this play out in Ontario just a few years ago: the provincial NDP propped up the minority Liberals in exchange for a pledge to cut auto-insurance premiums. The Liberals failed to deliver, ran another election, won another majority and shrugged off the NDP’s complaints. The auto-insurance promise? Meh. That was just a stretch goal.
We suppose eventually we’ll have to ponder what this means for the Conservatives — Ken Boessenkool got that ball rolling for us on Thursday. For now, we think we can only really say this: until the Conservatives pick a new leader, it’s really not worth speculating about how Future CPC Leader will handle Potentially Still Intact NDP-Liberal arrangement. The CPC has plenty of its own internal problems it may not be capable of solving. It should probably focus on those for the time being.
Oh, and one more little thing? We’re already seeing some speculation that the NDP-Liberal deal means a boost to Canadian defence spending is off the table. Maybe? Or maybe we’re just finding out what the NDP demanded before agreeing to let it happen.
Round up:
Alright, dear free readers. That’s it for us! Next week will be a bit more normal for us in terms of publishing schedules. We have enjoyed the time off, but back to the grind and all that. Have a wonderful weekend. And please sign up today if you can.
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