The always-hard-to-find number is how many people switched from the "I don't vote" party to the PPC. When Trump won, I recall a stat being claimed, that for every switch from Democrat to Republican (from Obama '12 to Trump '16) there were five Trump voters that switched from the "I never vote" party. They'd finally found a man they liked.
I really think the PPC surge from '19 was almost entirely anti-vaxxers/maskers fighting government tyranny, and they're not about to vote for mere Conservatives.
Americans have discovered that chasing that vote works in their country; but Canada lacks that 25% of America that are White Evangelicals, here, they can't win anybody anything.
Canada's Conservatives need to give up on any of the PPC vote. For every one of them you pick up, you'll lose two or three that will run away from even a whiff of them.
You just touched on the Green Party, but I would love to see a similar column as to whether those voters ended up propping up the Liberals, who had much made about their environment plan.
Excellent work Matt! I think the Millennials will provide a lot more support to the conservatives in the years to come. I think the pendulum will start to swing back soon…
I dunno. That was the most left wing platform the Tories have ever presented- way further left than any Liberal government pre-Trudeau had ever presented and they got fewer seats than with a conservative approach. Surel the conclusion has to be that policy makes no difference whatsoever and that people generally believe in and vote for whatever will make them popular at parties.
OK, Matt - you've crunched the official numbers, and as such, I largely agree with your analysis.
However...there could have been a more subtle effect of the PPC on the Conservative vote.
How many voters shied away from voting Conservative (and voted Liberal/NDP/Green) because the PPC existed (guilt by previous or perceived association)?
Tough to say or quanity, but for those centrist voters out there, the mere existence of the PPC and the possible spectre of a post-election PPC-Conservative coalition MAY have pushed some of them to park their votes with Lib/NDP/Green.
Think about it a bit - how many centrist voters check the box Conservative if the 'extreme right' PPC was not out there as a brand to help add some smell to the Cons?
One hypothesis to test in regards to the PPC is how much of a voter's vehicle they were for anyone annoyed at either pandemic restrictions or the fact that the election was not wanted by anyone, really. Protest votes happened everywhere.
In terms of all the slicing and dicing of data to explain why the Conservative party fell short, I would love to test the simplest explanation for election outcomes in a pure first-past-the-post system like the one we have in Canada. Why don't we look at two variables:
1. Strategic voting (essentially casting a vote to stop an ideological foe). I am not sure it is as meaningful as some make it out to be, plus it is not as "easy" to analyze as I would like and,
2. Not voting. Voters seem less and less prone to switching party preferences, so at the end of the day in a swing riding the results are based on how fired up the voters are in terms of the candidate/party they usually vote for. Was the shrinkage in vote difference in Ontario ridings a function of people switching their vote, or was it that those who vote Liberal did not show up?
In my humble view, any other fancy-schmancy analysis should only proceed if the simplest explanation fails to give us a solid answer.
For the Conservatives (and O’Toole for now) the siren call of the 905 has to be carefully considered against taking the parties base for granted in Western Canada. Money isn’t the be all end all in elections but is a huge factor. Ask the Green Party. The flip flopping by O’Toole that eventually resulted with him being painted as Liberal-lite likely hurt him in the ROC but definitely got the Western provinces attention and not in a good way. If he is not trusted to hold a firm position that fund raising will go elsewhere. The PPC is not exactly the Reform Party yet but they came from humble beginnings as well. The old Progressive Conservative Party (or regressive convertible party as Allan Fotheringham so aptly called them) also strayed and the result was a wobbly Cretien-led Liberal party holding power because if that split. Should the PPC ever choose a credible leader that could easily be our future. Again.
I doubt the people tossing these numbers around are particularly interested in their accuracy. More likely, they're simply looking for ammunition to prosecute a war against O'Toole because they're upset with his repositioning of the party towards the center. Why let facts spoil a good story?
The always-hard-to-find number is how many people switched from the "I don't vote" party to the PPC. When Trump won, I recall a stat being claimed, that for every switch from Democrat to Republican (from Obama '12 to Trump '16) there were five Trump voters that switched from the "I never vote" party. They'd finally found a man they liked.
I really think the PPC surge from '19 was almost entirely anti-vaxxers/maskers fighting government tyranny, and they're not about to vote for mere Conservatives.
Americans have discovered that chasing that vote works in their country; but Canada lacks that 25% of America that are White Evangelicals, here, they can't win anybody anything.
Canada's Conservatives need to give up on any of the PPC vote. For every one of them you pick up, you'll lose two or three that will run away from even a whiff of them.
You just touched on the Green Party, but I would love to see a similar column as to whether those voters ended up propping up the Liberals, who had much made about their environment plan.
Excellent work Matt! I think the Millennials will provide a lot more support to the conservatives in the years to come. I think the pendulum will start to swing back soon…
I dunno. That was the most left wing platform the Tories have ever presented- way further left than any Liberal government pre-Trudeau had ever presented and they got fewer seats than with a conservative approach. Surel the conclusion has to be that policy makes no difference whatsoever and that people generally believe in and vote for whatever will make them popular at parties.
OK, Matt - you've crunched the official numbers, and as such, I largely agree with your analysis.
However...there could have been a more subtle effect of the PPC on the Conservative vote.
How many voters shied away from voting Conservative (and voted Liberal/NDP/Green) because the PPC existed (guilt by previous or perceived association)?
Tough to say or quanity, but for those centrist voters out there, the mere existence of the PPC and the possible spectre of a post-election PPC-Conservative coalition MAY have pushed some of them to park their votes with Lib/NDP/Green.
Think about it a bit - how many centrist voters check the box Conservative if the 'extreme right' PPC was not out there as a brand to help add some smell to the Cons?
The PPC a social movement? Matt, you are kidding of course since conservatism is more an antisocial movement.
One hypothesis to test in regards to the PPC is how much of a voter's vehicle they were for anyone annoyed at either pandemic restrictions or the fact that the election was not wanted by anyone, really. Protest votes happened everywhere.
In terms of all the slicing and dicing of data to explain why the Conservative party fell short, I would love to test the simplest explanation for election outcomes in a pure first-past-the-post system like the one we have in Canada. Why don't we look at two variables:
1. Strategic voting (essentially casting a vote to stop an ideological foe). I am not sure it is as meaningful as some make it out to be, plus it is not as "easy" to analyze as I would like and,
2. Not voting. Voters seem less and less prone to switching party preferences, so at the end of the day in a swing riding the results are based on how fired up the voters are in terms of the candidate/party they usually vote for. Was the shrinkage in vote difference in Ontario ridings a function of people switching their vote, or was it that those who vote Liberal did not show up?
In my humble view, any other fancy-schmancy analysis should only proceed if the simplest explanation fails to give us a solid answer.
For the Conservatives (and O’Toole for now) the siren call of the 905 has to be carefully considered against taking the parties base for granted in Western Canada. Money isn’t the be all end all in elections but is a huge factor. Ask the Green Party. The flip flopping by O’Toole that eventually resulted with him being painted as Liberal-lite likely hurt him in the ROC but definitely got the Western provinces attention and not in a good way. If he is not trusted to hold a firm position that fund raising will go elsewhere. The PPC is not exactly the Reform Party yet but they came from humble beginnings as well. The old Progressive Conservative Party (or regressive convertible party as Allan Fotheringham so aptly called them) also strayed and the result was a wobbly Cretien-led Liberal party holding power because if that split. Should the PPC ever choose a credible leader that could easily be our future. Again.
I doubt the people tossing these numbers around are particularly interested in their accuracy. More likely, they're simply looking for ammunition to prosecute a war against O'Toole because they're upset with his repositioning of the party towards the center. Why let facts spoil a good story?